CS2 case simulator: open every case for free with the real odds
Open any of the 42 CS2 weapon cases for free with the real drop odds and today's Steam Market prices, see what one opening is actually worth on average, and send anything you unbox straight into the trade up calculator. Looking for the CS:GO case simulator? It is the same game: every classic CS:GO case is here, with the current CS2 drop odds.
Case contents, odds and value
Which case is worth opening? See all cases ranked by value per $1 →
All cases: value per opening
CS2 case odds
| Drop | Chance per opening | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 1.25 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 6.3 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 156 |
| Knife or gloves (gold) | 0.26% | 390 |
| StatTrak™ (any rarity) | 10% | 10 |
These are the odds Valve publishes for CS2 cases and the odds the simulator uses. On average you need about 390 openings (roughly $1,000 in keys alone) to see one knife or glove, which is why the trade up guide compares case opening with trade up contracts, and why five Covert skins can now be traded up into a knife instead.
Case simulator FAQ
Is the CS2 case simulator free?
Yes. Nothing is bought, opened or traded for real; it is a calculator that rolls the published odds and prices the result at today's market prices.
Are the odds the real CS2 case odds?
Yes: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% knife or gloves, with a 10% StatTrak™ chance. Wear is rolled with the same distribution Valve uses and a random float inside the skin's range.
Which CS2 case is the best to open?
No case returns more than it costs on average, but some lose much less than others. The best cases to open page ranks all 43 cases by expected value per dollar with today's prices.
Does it work as a CS:GO case simulator?
Yes. Every CS:GO case still drops in CS2 with the same contents, so all classic cases are here with the current odds and prices.
Can I get the skins I unbox?
No, the simulator is for seeing the odds and the maths. To get a specific skin you can buy it on a marketplace or trade up ten cheaper skins into it.
How the simulator works
- Real odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26% (the published CS2 case odds). StatTrak™ 10%.
- Wear: Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%, then a random float inside the skin's own range.
- Prices: Steam Community Market, refreshed every hour, before the 13% Steam fee; knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price. Change the case price to match today's market.
- Expected value is the average value of one opening at today's prices. Every case is below the $2.49 key + case cost on average; the simulator shows you how far below.
- Nothing is bought or opened for real. It is a free calculator, not a case site.