Shadow Case opening simulator
Unbox the Shadow Case as many times as you like, free. At today's Steam prices one opening is worth $2.61 on average against $4.88 for the case plus key (−47%). The rare pool has 13 knives and gloves; the best regular drop is USP-S | Kill Confirmed. Got a Covert? Five of them can go into a knife trade up.
Knife / Gloves · 0.26% · 13 items
Average value across wears, best first: ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade ($185.55), ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter ($117.27), ★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened ($115.14), ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web ($86.73), ★ Shadow Daggers ($84.50), ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel ($70.66), ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained ($64.85), ★ Shadow Daggers | Night ($61.18), ★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched ($58.29), ★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked ($55.40), ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT ($50.09), ★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh ($46.82), ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest ($45.72).
Covert · 0.64% · 2 items
Classified · 3.20% · 3 items
Restricted · 15.98% · 4 items
Mil-Spec · 79.92% · 7 items
Shadow Case in CS2: price, odds and best drops
The Shadow Case costs $2.39 on the Steam Community Market. Add the $2.49 key and one opening costs $4.88. At the prices of 2026-10-03 an average opening is worth $2.61, which is $0.53 back for every $1 spent, and about 7.6% of openings are worth more than the case plus key. It ranks #11 of 43 cases by value back.
Odds are the published CS2 case odds: 79.92% Mil-Spec (7 skins), 15.98% Restricted (4), 3.20% Classified (3), 0.64% Covert (2) and 0.26% knife or gloves (1 in 385). The most valuable regular drops are USP-S | Kill Confirmed ($107.26), M4A1-S | Golden Coil ($93.67), AK-47 | Frontside Misty ($28.30).
The rare pool has 13 knives and gloves. Averaged across all wears and weighted by the wear odds, the highest value is ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade at $184.69, the lowest is ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest at $45.10. Every knife and glove with prices and floats is on the Shadow Case knives page. Compare it with the rest on best CS2 cases to open or all CS2 cases (the drop odds of every case are on CS2 case odds); five Covert drops of one case can go into a knife trade up.
Shadow Case FAQ
How much does the Shadow Case cost in CS2?
About $2.39 on the Steam Community Market on 2026-10-03, plus the $2.49 key, so $4.88 for one opening.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
On average an opening returns $0.53 for every $1 spent (expected value $2.61 against a cost of $4.88), rank #11 of 43 cases. About 7.6% of single openings are worth more than they cost. Use the simulator above to see how a run of openings plays out.
What is the best skin in the Shadow Case?
The most valuable regular drops are USP-S | Kill Confirmed ($107.26), M4A1-S | Golden Coil ($93.67), AK-47 | Frontside Misty ($28.30). The most valuable knife or gloves is ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade at $184.69 on average across wears.
What are the odds of a knife from the Shadow Case?
Knives and gloves are 0.26%, or 1 in 385 openings. With 13 items in the rare pool each one is about 0.020% per opening.
How many skins are in the Shadow Case?
16 regular skins (7 Mil-Spec, 4 Restricted, 3 Classified, 2 Covert) plus 13 knives and gloves.
Can I open the Shadow Case for free?
Yes. The simulator above opens it with real odds and live Steam prices, no deposit and no real items.
How the simulator works
- Real odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26% (the published CS2 case odds). StatTrak™ 10%.
- Wear: Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%, then a random float inside the skin's own range.
- Prices: Steam Community Market, refreshed every hour, before the 13% Steam fee; knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price. Change the case price to match today's market.
- Expected value is the average value of one opening at today's prices. Every case is below the $2.49 key + case cost on average; the simulator shows you how far below.
- Nothing is bought or opened for real. It is a free calculator, not a case site.