Profitable CS2 Trade Ups

How the trade up finder works

1. For every collection, rarity and wear it picks the cheapest input skin that can have that wear.
2. It fills a contract with 10 copies (5 for Covert → knife) at the middle float of that wear.
3. It calculates every outcome’s float, wear and live price, then the expected value, ROI and chance of profit after the fee you choose.

Want a different mix, lower floats or your own prices? Click Open and edit the contract in the trade up calculator. To scan contracts that mix two collections, or to find the cheapest way to roll one specific skin, use the mixed-collection finder.

What makes a CS2 trade up profitable

A trade up makes money on average when the expected value of the result, after the fee of the market where you sell it, is higher than what the ten inputs cost. In practice the profitable contracts in the list above share a few traits:

• Cheap inputs, valuable outputs. The inputs come from a collection whose skins at this rarity are cheap, while one or more skins at the next rarity sell for many times more.
• Few possible outcomes. A collection with only one or two skins at the next rarity concentrates the odds. With ten inputs from one collection that has two outcomes, each outcome has a 50% chance.
• Float that lifts the result into a better wear. The output float is the average of the inputs mapped onto the output's float range, so slightly lower-float inputs can turn a Field-Tested result into Minimal Wear, which can be worth far more. See the trade up float guide.
• Fees that don't eat the margin. A contract that is 10% profitable before fees can lose money after the Steam Market's 15%. Set the fee of the market you will actually sell on.

Why profitable trade ups don't stay profitable

Everyone can see the same prices. When a contract turns profitable, traders buy its inputs until the input price rises, and the extra copies of the output that get made push its price down. Most profitable contracts therefore last hours or days, not weeks. That is why this list is recalculated as prices refresh, and why you should open a contract and check the prices you can really buy at before you buy ten skins for it.

Positive ROI vs chance of profit

ROI tells you what a contract returns on average; chance of profit tells you how often a single contract makes money. They can point in very different directions. Say ten inputs cost $10 and the contract has a 20% chance of a $40 skin and an 80% chance of a $5 skin:

• Expected value: 0.2 × $40 + 0.8 × $5 = $12, so the ROI is +20%.
• Chance of profit: only the $40 result beats the $10 cost, so it is 20%. Four contracts out of five lose money.

Over many contracts the average wins. One contract is closer to a gamble, so if you only plan to do a few, sort by chance of profit or set a minimum chance in the filters.

How to use the filters

• Budget and Max cost limit the total price of the ten inputs.
• Rarity picks the step, from Consumer → Industrial up to Covert → knife or gloves.
• Type switches between normal and StatTrak™ contracts, which never mix.
• Input wear fixes the wear of the inputs you want to buy.
• Min ROI and Min chance of profit hide contracts that are too thin or too risky for you.
• Sort ranks by ROI, profit or chance; Search finds a collection or a skin.

FAQ