CS2 case odds: drop rates for every case (2026)

By Ivan B. · Updated 2026-10-26

Short answer: every CS2 weapon case has the same odds: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.2% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% knife or gloves (about 1 in 385). Any drop except gloves can be StatTrak™ with a 1 in 10 chance. Below: the odds table, a calculator for your chance over many openings and the chance of one specific knife or Covert in each of the 43 cases.

Your chance over many openings

Odds for every case

The 0.26% knife chance is split evenly between the knives and gloves in a case, and the 0.64% Covert chance between its Coverts. Click a case to open it in the simulator with live prices.

What the odds do not tell you

• Wear: the float of an unboxed skin is random within that skin’s float range, so a skin that only goes up to 0.08 always comes out Factory New or Minimal Wear.
• Value: the odds are the same everywhere, but prices are not. Whether a case is worth opening depends on the case and key price and on what its skins sell for: see best cases to open.
• Other containers: souvenir packages, sticker capsules and charm packs use their own odds; this page covers weapon cases.
• A cheaper path to a knife: a knife trade up (5 Coverts) gives a knife or gloves from the chosen case every time; the cheapest knife trade up page shows the current cost.

Rarity odds: Valve’s official figures, published in 2017 (as listed by esports.net); knife, glove and Covert counts from our case data, the same as the case simulators. Key price $2.49.