Operation Vanguard Weapon Case opening simulator
Unbox the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case as many times as you like, free. At today's Steam prices one opening is worth $5.06 on average against $8.95 for the case plus key (−43%). The rare pool has 65 knives and gloves; the best regular drop is P2000 | Fire Elemental. Got a Covert? Five of them can go into a knife trade up.
Knife / Gloves · 0.26% · 65 items
Average value across wears, best first: ★ Karambit | Fade ($1,708.63), ★ Karambit ($1,415.82), ★ Karambit | Slaughter ($1,283.46), ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade ($1,141.07), ★ Karambit | Case Hardened ($1,106.66), ★ Karambit | Blue Steel ($1,070.82), ★ M9 Bayonet ($980.00), ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter ($941.68), ★ Karambit | Crimson Web ($864.38), ★ Karambit | Night ($798.68), ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel ($718.55), ★ Karambit | Stained ($706.54), ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened ($681.83), ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web ($666.02), ★ Karambit | Scorched ($591.17), ★ Karambit | Urban Masked ($586.02), ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest ($545.88), ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT ($540.04), ★ M9 Bayonet | Stained ($522.75), ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh ($504.70), ★ M9 Bayonet | Night ($496.82), ★ Bayonet | Fade ($463.48), ★ Bayonet | Slaughter ($415.66), ★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh ($394.78), ★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked ($391.32), ★ Flip Knife | Fade ($389.48), ★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT ($383.58), ★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched ($370.98), ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest ($359.92), ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened ($347.57), ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter ($338.27), ★ Bayonet ($321.51), ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web ($299.88), ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel ($290.73), ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web ($279.83), ★ Flip Knife ($227.54), ★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened ($220.73), ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel ($214.02), ★ Bayonet | Stained ($198.24), ★ Bayonet | Night ($191.99), ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked ($174.45), ★ Flip Knife | Night ($165.71), ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT ($165.07), ★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest ($161.03), ★ Flip Knife | Stained ($154.39), ★ Bayonet | Scorched ($154.15), ★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked ($153.13), ★ Gut Knife | Fade ($152.42), ★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh ($151.73), ★ Flip Knife | Scorched ($148.49), ★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest ($142.03), ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT ($140.32), ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened ($139.96), ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh ($135.07), ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter ($130.99), ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web ($94.54), ★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel ($88.00), ★ Gut Knife ($74.70), ★ Gut Knife | Stained ($72.27), ★ Gut Knife | Night ($65.35), ★ Gut Knife | Scorched ($61.56), ★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked ($59.39), ★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT ($59.02), ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest ($55.76), ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh ($53.28).
Covert · 0.64% · 2 items
Classified · 3.20% · 3 items
Restricted · 15.98% · 4 items
Mil-Spec · 79.92% · 5 items
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case in CS2: price, odds and best drops
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case costs $6.46 on the Steam Community Market. Add the $2.49 key and one opening costs $8.95. At the prices of 2026-10-03 an average opening is worth $5.06, which is $0.57 back for every $1 spent, and about 10.0% of openings are worth more than the case plus key. It ranks #7 of 43 cases by value back.
Odds are the published CS2 case odds: 79.92% Mil-Spec (5 skins), 15.98% Restricted (4), 3.20% Classified (3), 0.64% Covert (2) and 0.26% knife or gloves (1 in 385). The most valuable regular drops are P2000 | Fire Elemental ($110.21), AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel ($106.17), XM1014 | Tranquility ($19.10).
The rare pool has 65 knives and gloves. Averaged across all wears and weighted by the wear odds, the highest value is ★ Karambit | Fade at $1,708.63, the lowest is ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh at $52.37. Every knife and glove with prices and floats is on the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case knives page. Compare it with the rest on best CS2 cases to open or all CS2 cases (the drop odds of every case are on CS2 case odds); five Covert drops of one case can go into a knife trade up.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case FAQ
How much does the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case cost in CS2?
About $6.46 on the Steam Community Market on 2026-10-03, plus the $2.49 key, so $8.95 for one opening.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
On average an opening returns $0.57 for every $1 spent (expected value $5.06 against a cost of $8.95), rank #7 of 43 cases. About 10.0% of single openings are worth more than they cost. Use the simulator above to see how a run of openings plays out.
What is the best skin in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
The most valuable regular drops are P2000 | Fire Elemental ($110.21), AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel ($106.17), XM1014 | Tranquility ($19.10). The most valuable knife or gloves is ★ Karambit | Fade at $1,708.63 on average across wears.
What are the odds of a knife from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
Knives and gloves are 0.26%, or 1 in 385 openings. With 65 items in the rare pool each one is about 0.004% per opening.
How many skins are in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
14 regular skins (5 Mil-Spec, 4 Restricted, 3 Classified, 2 Covert) plus 65 knives and gloves.
Can I open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case for free?
Yes. The simulator above opens it with real odds and live Steam prices, no deposit and no real items.
How the simulator works
- Real odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26% (the published CS2 case odds). StatTrak™ 10%.
- Wear: Factory New 3%, Minimal Wear 24%, Field-Tested 33%, Well-Worn 24%, Battle-Scarred 16%, then a random float inside the skin's own range.
- Prices: Steam Community Market, refreshed every hour, before the 13% Steam fee; knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price. Change the case price to match today's market.
- Expected value is the average value of one opening at today's prices. Every case is below the $2.49 key + case cost on average; the simulator shows you how far below.
- Nothing is bought or opened for real. It is a free calculator, not a case site.