What the simulator shows
- Every outcome of your 10 (or 5 Covert) inputs with its exact chance – the in-game contract hides the odds.
- Output float and wear for each outcome from the CS2 normalised float formula, plus the input float you need for Factory New.
- Live prices for every input and outcome, expected value, ROI after your marketplace fee, and chance of profit.
- Knife simulation: switch to Covert → Knife to simulate the 5-red contract for all 43 cases.
How to simulate a trade up
- Search a skin and click it (or “+10”) to fill the contract – or use Target a skin and click the skin you want: the simulator builds the cheapest contract for it.
- Adjust floats and prices to match what you can actually buy.
- Pick the fee of the market where you will sell.
- Read the outcomes. If it is worth it, buy the inputs (Tradeit, Steam, CSFloat, Skinport links are on every card) and repeat the contract in game.
The simulator uses the same data as our profitable trade ups finder and the skin pages. Rules and formulas are in the trade up guide.
Expected value is not what you get: a worked example
A contract can be profitable on average and still lose most of the time, which is the whole point of simulating it. Take a $20 contract with two inputs from a collection whose only Classified outcome sells for $120 and eight inputs from a collection whose four Classified outcomes average $8. The odds are 20 % for the $120 skin and 80 % for an $8 skin, so the expected value is 0.2 × 120 + 0.8 × 8 = $30.40, an ROI of +52 %. Four rolls out of five still lose $12.
| Contracts rolled | Money in | Chance you are still in the red |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20 | 80 % |
| 10 | $200 | 38 % |
| 50 | $1,000 | 5 % |
| 100 | $2,000 | under 1 % |
Ten misses in a row happen about once in nine attempts (0.810 = 10.7 %). The simulator shows this for your own contract: run it 1,000 times and read the net result, how many runs end in the red and the longest losing streak, then decide whether your budget survives the bad stretch. The calculator gives you the expected value; the simulator tells you whether you can afford to wait for it. Prices come from the same feed as the profitable trade ups finder, so a contract that looks good there can be stress-tested here before you buy the inputs.
Simulator FAQ
Is the CS2 trade up simulator free?
Yes – no account, no limits, no ads.
Is this the CS:GO trade up simulator?
Yes. It covers every skin and collection carried over from CS:GO and follows the current CS2 contract rules.
Does the simulator use real odds?
Yes. Odds follow the contract rules exactly: each input gives its collection 10% (20% for the 5-Covert contract), split evenly between that collection’s outcomes.
Can I simulate a knife trade up?
Yes – choose Covert → Knife / Gloves; the pool of every weapon case is included with live prices.
Can I share a simulated contract?
Yes – “Copy link” puts the whole contract in the URL.
What is the difference between the calculator and the simulator?
The calculator computes the odds, output float and expected value of one contract. The simulator rolls that contract 1,000 times with those odds and shows the spread of results: net profit or loss, how many runs end in the red and the longest losing streak.
How many contracts should I simulate?
1,000 rolls are enough to see the shape of the risk. For a contract with a 20 % chance of the valuable outcome, the chance of still being in the red is about 38 % after 10 contracts and about 5 % after 50, so the question is how many contracts your budget covers.