M4A4 | Sheet Lightning: trade up odds, float & price
Restricted Rifles skin from the Boreal Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.75, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Mil-Spec skins of the Boreal Collection with a 50% chance per contract.
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning price by wear
| Wear | Float | Price | StatTrak™ | Souvenir |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New (FN) | 0.000 – 0.070 | $4.32 | — | — |
| Minimal Wear (MW) | 0.070 – 0.150 | $2.17 | — | $69.95 |
| Field-Tested (FT) | 0.150 – 0.380 | $0.76 | — | $33.16 |
| Well-Worn (WW) | 0.380 – 0.450 | $0.74 | — | — |
| Battle-Scarred (BS) | 0.450 – 0.750 | $0.67 | — | — |
Souvenir = the Souvenir version of this skin, same price rule as the Price column. Souvenir prices depend on the stickers the item carries, so this is a floor, not the price of a particular item.
Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A4 | Sheet Lightning is Battle-Scarred at $0.48 on Tradeit.gg. Factory New costs $3.66, 7.6× as much. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $0.76, 33% above the cheapest marketplace listing.
How to trade up into the M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
Put 10 Mil-Spec skins from the Boreal Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 2 Restricted skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Sheet Lightning has a 50% chance (the other outcome is Glock-18 | Glockingbird). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.
- Inputs (Mil-Spec): AK-47 | Wintergreen, MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket, MP5-SD | Gold Leaf, USP-S | Tropical Breeze, XM1014 | Copperflage.
- Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.0933.
- Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.2000.
- Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.75 – see the float guide.
Cheapest M4A4 | Sheet Lightning trade ups right now
10 identical Mil-Spec inputs from the Boreal Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 50% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.
| Contract | Cost | EV | ROI | Chance of profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10× XM1014 | Copperflage MW Mil-Spec → Restricted | $2.10 | $2.20 | +4.5% | 50.0% | Open in calculator |
| 10× MP5-SD | Gold Leaf FT Mil-Spec → Restricted | $0.90 | $0.93 | +2.8% | 50.0% | Open in calculator |
| 10× XM1014 | Copperflage FN Mil-Spec → Restricted | $4.90 | $4.72 | -3.7% | 50.0% | Open in calculator |
| 10× XM1014 | Copperflage BS Mil-Spec → Restricted | $1.00 | $0.70 | -30.5% | 0.0% | Open in calculator |
| 10× XM1014 | Copperflage WW Mil-Spec → Restricted | $1.90 | $0.70 | -63.4% | 0.0% | Open in calculator |
Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)
What the M4A4 | Sheet Lightning trades up into
10 Restricted skins from the Boreal Collection give one of 1 Classified skin, each with a 100% chance:
More Boreal Collection skins
