M4A1-S | Nightmare: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Horizon Collection. Float range 0.00 – 1.00, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Horizon Collection with a 33.3% chance per contract.

M4A1-S | Nightmare price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$201.27	$128.66
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$24.08	$55.52
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$9.81	$25.27
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$7.28	$22.16
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 1.000	$7.06	$22.45

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A1-S | Nightmare is Battle-Scarred at $5.68 on CS.MONEY. Factory New costs $185.67, 33× as much. StatTrak™ costs from 0.5× to 3.4× the normal price, depending on the wear. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $9.81, 32% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A1-S | Nightmare

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Horizon Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 3 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Nightmare has a 33.3% chance (the other outcomes are FAMAS | Eye of Athena, Sawed-Off | Devourer). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): AWP | PAW, CZ75-Auto | Eco, G3SG1 | High Seas, MP7 | Powercore, Nova | Toy Soldier.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.0700.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1500.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 1.00 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A1-S | Nightmare trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Horizon Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 33.3% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× CZ75-Auto \| Eco StatTrak™ WW Restricted → Classified	$14.60	$13.78	-5.6%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× G3SG1 \| High Seas StatTrak™ FT Restricted → Classified	$17.30	$15.81	-8.6%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× CZ75-Auto \| Eco StatTrak™ BS Restricted → Classified	$14.90	$11.80	-20.8%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Toy Soldier WW Restricted → Classified	$8.50	$6.65	-21.8%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Toy Soldier BS Restricted → Classified	$9.00	$6.55	-27.3%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× G3SG1 \| High Seas FT Restricted → Classified	$11.50	$7.73	-32.8%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Toy Soldier StatTrak™ MW Restricted → Classified	$53.30	$32.54	-39.0%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× G3SG1 \| High Seas StatTrak™ FN Restricted → Classified	$128.80	$72.48	-43.7%	33.3%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A1-S | Nightmare
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)