M4A1-S | Guardian: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Winter Offensive Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.50, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Winter Offensive Collection with a 33.3% chance per contract.

M4A1-S | Guardian price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$56.00	$116.10
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$30.64	$84.27
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$25.03	$59.00
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$23.93	$68.84
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 0.500	$23.00	$55.81

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A1-S | Guardian is Well-Worn at $19.62 on CS.MONEY. Factory New costs $45.06, 2.3× as much. StatTrak™ costs 1.8–2.9× the normal price. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $25.03, 28% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A1-S | Guardian

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Winter Offensive Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 3 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Guardian has a 33.3% chance (the other outcomes are AWP | Redline, P250 | Mehndi). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): Dual Berettas | Marina, FAMAS | Pulse, MP9 | Rose Iron, Nova | Rising Skull.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1400.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.3000.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.50 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A1-S | Guardian trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Winter Offensive Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 33.3% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× Nova \| Rising Skull StatTrak™ BS Restricted → Classified	$59.40	$79.82	+34.4%	66.7%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull StatTrak™ WW Restricted → Classified	$66.00	$63.49	-3.8%	66.7%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull StatTrak™ FT Restricted → Classified	$63.60	$60.28	-5.2%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull FN Restricted → Classified	$92.60	$62.83	-32.1%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull StatTrak™ FN Restricted → Classified	$171.00	$114.98	-32.8%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull WW Restricted → Classified	$45.80	$27.02	-41.0%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Nova \| Rising Skull BS Restricted → Classified	$52.80	$30.76	-41.7%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× MP9 \| Rose Iron StatTrak™ MW Restricted → Classified	$123.00	$63.61	-48.3%	0.0%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A1-S | Guardian
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)