M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Control Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.08, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Control Collection with a 50% chance per contract.

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$589.91	—
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.080	$685.28	—

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor is Factory New at $459.52 on Waxpeer. Minimal Wear costs $627.42, 1.4× as much. On the Steam Market the Factory New sells for $589.91, 28% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Control Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 2 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Blue Phosphor has a 50% chance (the other outcome is USP-S | Target Acquired). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy, Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries, UMP-45 | Crime Scene.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.8750.
Minimal Wear result: always.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.08 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Control Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 50% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× UMP-45 \| Crime Scene WW Restricted → Classified	$750.00	$457.30	-39.0%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy MW Restricted → Classified	$1,007	$515.83	-48.8%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy FT Restricted → Classified	$927.20	$457.30	-50.7%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries FN Restricted → Classified	$1,140	$457.30	-59.9%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× UMP-45 \| Crime Scene BS Restricted → Classified	$1,356	$452.43	-66.6%	0.0%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)