MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly: trade up odds, float & price

Restricted SMGs skin from the 2021 Train Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.58, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Mil-Spec skins of the 2021 Train Collection with a 20% chance per contract.

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$16.85	—
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$10.59	—
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$6.76	—
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$6.72	—
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 0.580	$6.87	—

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly is Well-Worn at $5.42 on CS.MONEY. Factory New costs $12.72, 2.3× as much. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $6.76, 11% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Put 10 Mil-Spec skins from the 2021 Train Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 5 Restricted skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Autumn Twilly has a 20% chance (the other outcomes are AWP | POP AWP, CZ75-Auto | Syndicate, P2000 | Space Race, Nova | Red Quartz). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Mil-Spec): AUG | Amber Fade, Desert Eagle | Sputnik, M4A1-S | Fizzy POP, R8 Revolver | Blaze, SSG 08 | Spring Twilly, Tec-9 | Safety Net, UMP-45 | Full Stop.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1207.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.2586.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.58 – see the float guide.

Cheapest MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly trade ups right now

10 identical Mil-Spec inputs from the 2021 Train Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 20% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× UMP-45 \| Full Stop FN Mil-Spec → Restricted	$39.90	$26.23	-34.3%	20.0%	Open in calculator
10× UMP-45 \| Full Stop BS Mil-Spec → Restricted	$15.90	$7.01	-55.9%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Tec-9 \| Safety Net WW Mil-Spec → Restricted	$18.40	$7.17	-61.0%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× Tec-9 \| Safety Net FT Mil-Spec → Restricted	$19.50	$7.32	-62.5%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× AUG \| Amber Fade MW Mil-Spec → Restricted	$25.00	$7.98	-68.1%	0.0%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)