M4A4 | Polysoup: trade up odds, float & price

Restricted Rifles skin from the Graphic Design Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.64, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Mil-Spec skins of the Graphic Design Collection with a 33.3% chance per contract.

M4A4 | Polysoup price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™	Souvenir
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$23.04	—	—
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$13.53	—	—
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$9.68	—	—
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$8.86	—	—
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 0.640	$6.52	—	$41.79

Souvenir = the Souvenir version of this skin, same price rule as the Price column. Souvenir prices depend on the stickers the item carries, so this is a floor, not the price of a particular item.

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A4 | Polysoup is Battle-Scarred at $5.71 on Waxpeer. Factory New costs $19.55, 3.4× as much. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $9.68, 30% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A4 | Polysoup

Put 10 Mil-Spec skins from the Graphic Design Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 3 Restricted skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Polysoup has a 33.3% chance (the other outcomes are CZ75-Auto | Slalom, P90 | Attack Vector). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Mil-Spec): AK-47 | Crossfade, SCAR-20 | Wild Berry, SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat, XM1014 | Halftone Shift.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1094.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.2344.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.64 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A4 | Polysoup trade ups right now

10 identical Mil-Spec inputs from the Graphic Design Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 33.3% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry FN Mil-Spec → Restricted	$28.90	$23.51	-18.6%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat FT Mil-Spec → Restricted	$12.10	$9.09	-24.9%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× XM1014 \| Halftone Shift MW Mil-Spec → Restricted	$19.60	$14.07	-28.2%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× XM1014 \| Halftone Shift WW Mil-Spec → Restricted	$11.30	$7.73	-31.6%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× XM1014 \| Halftone Shift BS Mil-Spec → Restricted	$9.90	$6.72	-32.1%	0.0%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A4 | Polysoup
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)