M4A4 | Hellfire: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Operation Hydra Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.50, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Operation Hydra Collection with a 33.3% chance per contract.

M4A4 | Hellfire price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$310.96	$259.64
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$139.97	$150.00
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$101.99	$127.60
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$78.23	$103.54
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 0.500	$68.88	$63.99

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A4 | Hellfire is Well-Worn at $62.40 on CS.MONEY. Factory New costs $230.71, 3.7× as much. StatTrak™ costs from 0.8× to 1.4× the normal price, depending on the wear. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $101.99, 18% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A4 | Hellfire

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Operation Hydra Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 3 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Hellfire has a 33.3% chance (the other outcomes are Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike, Galil AR | Sugar Rush). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): AK-47 | Orbit Mk01, P2000 | Woodsman, P250 | Red Rock, P90 | Death Grip, SSG 08 | Death's Head.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1400.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.3000.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.50 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A4 | Hellfire trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Operation Hydra Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 33.3% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× P250 \| Red Rock MW Restricted → Classified	$229.40	$203.15	-11.4%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× P250 \| Red Rock StatTrak™ FN Restricted → Classified	$272.80	$239.30	-12.3%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× P250 \| Red Rock StatTrak™ BS Restricted → Classified	$120.00	$101.65	-15.3%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× P2000 \| Woodsman StatTrak™ MW Restricted → Classified	$221.30	$179.96	-18.7%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× P90 \| Death Grip BS Restricted → Classified	$152.40	$107.49	-29.5%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× P250 \| Red Rock StatTrak™ WW Restricted → Classified	$133.80	$93.44	-30.2%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× P2000 \| Woodsman StatTrak™ FT Restricted → Classified	$135.50	$93.44	-31.0%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× SSG 08 \| Death's Head FN Restricted → Classified	$309.80	$203.15	-34.4%	33.3%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A4 | Hellfire
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)