M4A1-S | Hot Rod: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Chop Shop Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.08, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Chop Shop Collection with a 50% chance per contract.

M4A1-S | Hot Rod price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$1,473	—
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.080	$1,308	—

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A1-S | Hot Rod is Factory New at $1,107 on Waxpeer. Minimal Wear costs $1,308, 1.2× as much. On the Steam Market the Factory New sells for $1,473, 33% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A1-S | Hot Rod

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Chop Shop Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 2 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Hot Rod has a 50% chance (the other outcome is Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): Dual Berettas | Duelist, SG 553 | Bulldozer.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.8750.
Minimal Wear result: always.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.08 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A1-S | Hot Rod trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Chop Shop Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 50% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× Dual Berettas \| Duelist FT Restricted → Classified	$1,922	$1,193	-37.9%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× SG 553 \| Bulldozer MW Restricted → Classified	$2,200	$1,193	-45.8%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× SG 553 \| Bulldozer BS Restricted → Classified	$1,978	$1,044	-47.2%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× SG 553 \| Bulldozer WW Restricted → Classified	$2,230	$1,045	-53.2%	0.0%	Open in calculator
10× SG 553 \| Bulldozer FN Restricted → Classified	$3,266	$1,193	-63.5%	0.0%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A1-S | Hot Rod
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)