M4A1-S | Black Lotus: trade up odds, float & price

Classified Rifles skin from the Kilowatt Collection. Float range 0.00 – 0.70, available in Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred. You can get it from a trade up of 10 Restricted skins of the Kilowatt Collection with a 33.3% chance per contract.

M4A1-S | Black Lotus price by wear

Wear	Float	Price	StatTrak™	Souvenir
Factory New (FN)	0.000 – 0.070	$12.85	$34.64	—
Minimal Wear (MW)	0.070 – 0.150	$6.90	$19.91	$233.39
Field-Tested (FT)	0.150 – 0.380	$4.45	$12.22	$56.84
Well-Worn (WW)	0.380 – 0.450	$4.80	$13.14	—
Battle-Scarred (BS)	0.450 – 0.700	$4.48	$12.26	—

Souvenir = the Souvenir version of this skin, same price rule as the Price column. Souvenir prices depend on the stickers the item carries, so this is a floor, not the price of a particular item.

Price check, 2026-11-11: the cheapest M4A1-S | Black Lotus is Field-Tested at $3.18 on CS.MONEY. Factory New costs $9.39, 3× as much. StatTrak™ costs about 3.1× the normal price. On the Steam Market the Field-Tested sells for $4.45, 40% above the cheapest marketplace listing.

How to trade up into the M4A1-S | Black Lotus

Put 10 Restricted skins from the Kilowatt Collection into a trade up contract. The collection has 3 Classified skins, so with all 10 inputs from this collection the Black Lotus has a 33.3% chance (the other outcomes are Zeus x27 | Olympus, USP-S | Jawbreaker). Mixing in another collection lowers the chance in proportion to the inputs you replace.

Inputs (Restricted): Five-SeveN | Hybrid, Glock-18 | Block-18, M4A4 | Etch Lord, MP7 | Just Smile, Sawed-Off | Analog Input.
Factory New result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.1000.
Minimal Wear result: average normalised input float ≤ 0.2143.
Output float: 0.00 + average × 0.70 – see the float guide.

Cheapest M4A1-S | Black Lotus trade ups right now

10 identical Restricted inputs from the Kilowatt Collection at today’s prices. Every contract below has a 33.3% chance of this skin – open one to change floats, wear or fee.

Contract	Cost	EV	ROI	Chance of profit
10× Sawed-Off \| Analog Input StatTrak™ FN Restricted → Classified	$27.80	$36.05	+29.7%	66.7%	Open in calculator
10× Sawed-Off \| Analog Input FN Restricted → Classified	$14.60	$15.43	+5.7%	66.7%	Open in calculator
10× Five-SeveN \| Hybrid StatTrak™ WW Restricted → Classified	$8.70	$8.90	+2.3%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Five-SeveN \| Hybrid StatTrak™ BS Restricted → Classified	$8.30	$8.45	+1.8%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Sawed-Off \| Analog Input StatTrak™ MW Restricted → Classified	$14.10	$13.99	-0.8%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× MP7 \| Just Smile BS Restricted → Classified	$4.30	$4.21	-2.0%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Sawed-Off \| Analog Input StatTrak™ FT Restricted → Classified	$9.20	$8.90	-3.2%	33.3%	Open in calculator
10× Sawed-Off \| Analog Input FT Restricted → Classified	$4.60	$4.29	-6.8%	33.3%	Open in calculator

Steam Market prices, snapshot of 2026-09-27 (USD, before fees); the table refreshes with live prices on page load. Knives and gloves above Steam's $2,000 listing cap use the lowest marketplace price.

Build a contract for the M4A1-S | Black Lotus
Open in the calculator (auto-builds the cheapest contract)